Thursday, October 19, 2006

A Sign Of Things To Come?

Why is it lately that I wake up every day feeling as if I have already been screwed? Yeah, this is going to be one of those kinds of posts. I don’t often do these kinds of posts, but haven’t found anything else lately that I really want to talk about.

Nothing.

I really don’t feel like talking about why BagMan Jimbo is a slimeball. We all already know that and most of the people in the “Cheddarsphere” beat the crap out of him on a daily basis.

I really don’t feel like talking about election ads, election funds and or why Jim Sensenbrenner will cream the crap out of those two peons running against him.

I really don’t feel like talking about why Gwen Moore shouldn’t be reelected. She still will, and probably will until she dies.

I don’t want to talk about how ridiculously overtaxed we are in Wisconsin.

I don’t want to talk about how people are being murdered all over Milwaukee and how we don’t have a “crisis.”

I don’t want to talk about having to put my car in storage. I don’t want to talk about how it’s supposed to be a warm winter because of “La Nina.”

I don’t want to talk about how everyday I put that “Corn-a-hol” shit in my ’72 VW that I could hear that engine choking for it’s life.

I also don’t want to talk about why I feel that the only fuel alternative that makes sense is being ignored because there is no money in refining grease.

No, I don’t want to talk about any of those things.

I want to talk about our economy. Short and sweet. On Thursday, October 19, 2006 the Dow Jones Industrial reached a dizzying high closing above 12000 points. I am sure that most of you already know this and have been paying attention.

It is all a sham. Smoke and mirrors. BS.

WHY?

How has business been for you lately? Are you posting company highs and record earnings? Is your business so busy right now that you can’t keep up? No, I didn’t think so. Those of you that I know who read this blog don’t work for Archer Daniels Midland.

How has the value of your house been lately? More importantly, do you own a home, or is it mortgaged? What kind of mortgage do you have? I hope you aren’t like some of those poor souls that got suckered into an arm or a variable rate. I hope you didn’t finance 125% of that new home’s value when you bought it 3 years ago. I hope you aren’t trying to refi out of that variable rate mortgage now only to find out that you are upside down… in a house.

I hope, on the other hand, that you are one of the lucky souls in a great financial position. I hope that you have a very equitable debt to income ratio. I hope someone didn’t slam you into a bad spot.

Someone like GM, DamChry or FoMoCo.

It has finally happened. I knew it would and have been talking about it for quite some time. If you know me more intimately than the blogosphere, you would know that I have been talking about this for some time. How many times can you roll inequity before it’s one too many? How much did you finance into that new car loan for 96 months? 115%? 125%? 140%? How much depreciation can you handle in one year? 30%? 40%? Dare I say 50%? (That’s for those of you in Neons, Cavaliers and old body style Suburbans/Tahoes.)

Do you realize that the retail automobile industry is a huge indicator of our economy? Do you realize that for every car that a car salesman sells that it creates and or supports 6 jobs? Did you realize that once we see sales come to a screeching halt, you will see it too? What about service? Yeah, that’s dried up too. Besides repairing customer’s cars, they maintain cars on the lot that aren’t being moved. So no new ones come in… and work doesn’t turn over like it’s supposed to.

We were down roughly 40% last month form September, 2005. September is a huge month. This month doesn’t look too much better. This isn’t just my shop, this is everywhere.

Why the big 3? When you continue to pull future buyers out of the market, it creates a small ripple. That small ripple gets bigger and bigger. It gets big enough until that halt comes.

Hear it? I do. And it sounds more like a small recession than a screech.

Don’t believe me, wait and see. ’07 will be a trying time. And it won’t be just for me.

6 Comments:

At 4:07 AM, Blogger Phelony Jones said...

For a good 5-7 years I have thought that it can't be possible that everyone will continue to have a new car. It would just make too many cars on the road and flood the market with used autos, especially since we lease nowadays instead of buy. As for the sharp drop I couldn't explain that, except that people have to make choices on where their money is going to go. I for one know that right now, I'd rather put money into other things than a car payment, if I can help it.

 
At 4:54 AM, Blogger Dad29 said...

Mopar's now offering $12K discounts on its truck line.

That's about 33% of list...

BTW, it's spelled "Corn-a-Hole."

It's a play on words. In the Good Old Days, one was "corn-holed" when one was sodomized.

Clear?

 
At 3:21 PM, Anonymous AC said...

Man, I read your economy slow down analysis and I am not 100% in agreement. Visit NY and check the high tech industry, there is growth, plus the US economy generates more job openings every few days than the amount of people getting fired by GM. Yet, being an entrepreneur myself I was wired a bit optimistic.

Now, here is something for you and others like you. Opinionated people with audience and expertise that are looking to generate more revenue and diversify their exiting revenue.

You are an expert about cars, not to mention my favorite, fast cars, so here is the deal.

We are coming up (in few weeks) with a web tool (did i say free?) with which you will be able to register as an expert (you can also link it to and from your blog). You will specify when you can provide consulting, and how much you charge for your time (on a per minute basis).

I bet you get many questions about cars from local customers, who look to purchase a car in your area.

How about if you could give advice all over the US? From your office or home, with a PC using audio and Video. As soon as you finish a call you are paid. Instantly!

You indicated that you know cars, and the industry is slowing, so why not use your down time to compensate? Who knows, you may find this even more lucrative. After all you set your own price.

To pre-register go to http://beta.bitwine.com/signup/DCAR

 
At 6:17 AM, Blogger WatchdogMilwaukee.com said...

We're hardly kindred spirits in the political rhelm but I'll offer you some solice.

I'm a sales manager in the home improvement industry. We specialize in selling the highest quality, most efficient window in the metro Milwaukee market. (an R-25 frame!)

Business has been good. In fact, I just hired three new guys. The most difficult thing I've had to deal with his finding quality people. I didn't even require a sales background and I couldn't get people to show up for work! What the hell is up with that?

I had one person who I hired who was excited because she was working in a pissass job making 30k a year and she didn't show up!

Any good salesman will realize that you ride out the highs with the lows. It sucks to not make any money for a week or more but if you're any good, you'll have weeks where you might pull back 3 or 4k.

So look at the big pic.

 
At 4:28 PM, Blogger P.I. Mom said...

Oh, let the man have a pity-party, would ya? We all need one from time to time - sometimes we just feel like being pissed off - so shut up with the "big picture" and let the man bask in his self-absorbed, festering, bad mood...

...and then PI Mom woke up and said what she says to all of her retarded friends...
"you hang in there sunshine - you're friggin' special...Now, get back to work!"

Who loves ya, DCS?

 
At 5:08 PM, Blogger Neo-Con Tastic said...

Quite the analysis. I actually agree with everything you say.

 

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