A Sign Of Things To Come?
Why is it lately that I wake up every day feeling as if I have already been screwed? Yeah, this is going to be one of those kinds of posts. I don’t often do these kinds of posts, but haven’t found anything else lately that I really want to talk about.
I really don’t feel like talking about why BagMan Jimbo is a slimeball. We all already know that and most of the people in the “Cheddarsphere” beat the crap out of him on a daily basis.
I really don’t feel like talking about election ads, election funds and or why Jim Sensenbrenner will cream the crap out of those two peons running against him.
I really don’t feel like talking about why Gwen Moore shouldn’t be reelected. She still will, and probably will until she dies.
I don’t want to talk about how ridiculously overtaxed we are in Wisconsin.
I don’t want to talk about how people are being murdered all over Milwaukee and how we don’t have a “crisis.”
I don’t want to talk about having to put my car in storage. I don’t want to talk about how it’s supposed to be a warm winter because of “La Nina.”
I don’t want to talk about how everyday I put that “Corn-a-hol” shit in my ’72 VW that I could hear that engine choking for it’s life.
I also don’t want to talk about why I feel that the only fuel alternative that makes sense is being ignored because there is no money in refining grease.
No, I don’t want to talk about any of those things.
I want to talk about our economy. Short and sweet. On Thursday, October 19, 2006 the Dow Jones Industrial reached a dizzying high closing above 12000 points. I am sure that most of you already know this and have been paying attention.
It is all a sham. Smoke and mirrors. BS.
How has business been for you lately? Are you posting company highs and record earnings? Is your business so busy right now that you can’t keep up? No, I didn’t think so. Those of you that I know who read this blog don’t work for Archer Daniels Midland.
How has the value of your house been lately? More importantly, do you own a home, or is it mortgaged? What kind of mortgage do you have? I hope you aren’t like some of those poor souls that got suckered into an arm or a variable rate. I hope you didn’t finance 125% of that new home’s value when you bought it 3 years ago. I hope you aren’t trying to refi out of that variable rate mortgage now only to find out that you are upside down… in a house.
I hope, on the other hand, that you are one of the lucky souls in a great financial position. I hope that you have a very equitable debt to income ratio. I hope someone didn’t slam you into a bad spot.
Someone like GM, DamChry or FoMoCo.
It has finally happened. I knew it would and have been talking about it for quite some time. If you know me more intimately than the blogosphere, you would know that I have been talking about this for some time. How many times can you roll inequity before it’s one too many? How much did you finance into that new car loan for 96 months? 115%? 125%? 140%? How much depreciation can you handle in one year? 30%? 40%? Dare I say 50%? (That’s for those of you in Neons, Cavaliers and old body style Suburbans/Tahoes.)
Do you realize that the retail automobile industry is a huge indicator of our economy? Do you realize that for every car that a car salesman sells that it creates and or supports 6 jobs? Did you realize that once we see sales come to a screeching halt, you will see it too? What about service? Yeah, that’s dried up too. Besides repairing customer’s cars, they maintain cars on the lot that aren’t being moved. So no new ones come in… and work doesn’t turn over like it’s supposed to.
We were down roughly 40% last month form September, 2005. September is a huge month. This month doesn’t look too much better. This isn’t just my shop, this is everywhere.
Why the big 3? When you continue to pull future buyers out of the market, it creates a small ripple. That small ripple gets bigger and bigger. It gets big enough until that halt comes.
Hear it? I do. And it sounds more like a small recession than a screech.
Don’t believe me, wait and see. ’07 will be a trying time. And it won’t be just for me.